Two F1 Races Remaining: The Sharp End

Two Races Remaining: The Sharp End

The end is in sight, but nothing is decided. With both titles still hanging in the balance, there’s everything to play for as we head out to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.

It’s

been

decade

since

Formula

One

last

went

into

the

final

two

races

the

season

with

quite

much

stake.

We’re

heading

for

Middle

Eastern

double

header

with

both

titles

precariously

the

balance

and,

just

muddy

the

waters

little

further,

two

circuits

stuffed

with

unknowns.

Jeddah Is Set For F1

It’s worth restating the points situation because, unless we have one of those statistically unlikely races in Jeddah, maths is going to feature quite prominently over the next couple of weeks. Max leads Lewis Hamilton by eight points in the Drivers’ Championship: 351.5 playing 343.5, with no-one else in contention for top honours. In the Constructors’ Championship, an even more slender advantage is canted in Mercedes’ favour. They are five points ahead, with 546.5 to our 541.5.

Both title races are close enough that commentators are starting to use the dreaded phrase ‘in the event of a tie’. F1 settles those on countback. The driver or team with the most victories takes the honours. If they’re tied on wins, then it’s done on second places, then third and so on down the order.

Max could be crowned World Champion this weekend, although it’s a pretty long-shot. He is eight points clear of Lewis Hamilton and so needs to score 18 points more than Lewis in Jeddah to take the title. That would see him move 26 points ahead going into the final round, with 26 available, and with Max having the superior win record, he’d therefore be crowned on win difference.

In order for Max to be crowned Champion in Saudi Arabia the following would need to happen:

Max wins with the fastest lap, and Lewis is no better than sixth
Max wins without fastest lap, and Lewis is no better than seventh
Max finishes second with the fastest lap, and Lewis is no better than 10th
Max finishes second, and Lewis does not score.

Max Set For The Final Run In

At the other end of the scale, the Constructors’ Championship is still in the balance with Mercedes five points ahead. If they outscore us by 39 points this weekend they will be Champions. If we fail to score in Jeddah, Mercedes need a minimum of first and third to wrap-up the title.

Is it possible for both titles to be settled this weekend? No. Either, but not both. If Max scores enough points to win the Drivers’ Championship, then we’re automatically still in contention for the Constructors’; if Mercedes score enough to win the Constructors’ Lewis is still in contention for the Drivers’.

What else is up for grabs? While everyone is looking at the titles, Checo and Valtteri Bottas have their own battle to decide for who gets to go to the FIA prize giving in Paris next month to collect a trophy. Valtteri currently leads that one with 203 points to Checo’s 190. He needs to outscore Checo by 14 points to secure third place.

Barring something on the Baku/Hungary scale, it isn’t likely we’ll see anything decided in Saudi Arabia, which means both title races will go to the wire, something F1 hasn’t seen since 2008. What’s particularly exciting for the neutral (though we’re not entirely convinced such a person exists) is that, heading to Jeddah, it’s very difficult to tell where the advantage lies.

Fans have been treated to a season that has swung back and forth, with advantage frequently being circuit specific. With two races left, however, we’ve got one-and-a-half new circuits to visit, and although many digital miles have been pounded in the simulator, no-one really knows what we’re going to see.

Max On Track In Qatar

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit defies easy description, it’s not really like anywhere else F1 visits. Being a high-speed street circuit, it has shades of Baku, but Baku has fast straights and a preponderance of slower, 90° corners, whereas most of the turns in Jeddah are at the top end of the speed range, if not actually flat-out. It’s also not really a ‘street’ circuit in the conventional sense, in that the streets it’s on, were taken up and re-laid for the circuit. It has a banked corner, which is very un-street-like, but it’s got street circuit DNA in the proximity of the walls and the need for pin-point accuracy. It’s the sort of track where anything could happen and a World Championship could be decided by the fortuitous timing of a safety car or red flag.

While Yas Marina is going to look much the same from a garage, in terms of the circuit characteristics, it may as well be a new venue. While only two of the corner complexes have been dramatically changed, the effect on the lap is likely to be enormous.

The circuit, which previously had 21 corners, now has 16. It’s 273m shorter and the race will be three laps longer, with the chicane and hairpin at the ‘bottom’ of the track replaced by one quicker corner, and the sequence of turns 11, 12, 13 and 14 at the sea canal end of the track replaced with one big, probably very quick, parabola. The sequence of corners around and under the hotel have also been realigned to allow more following. It is, in effect, just like a new circuit and no-one ever quite knows what to expect from those.

Max Looking Ahead To The Future